The risk of the catastrophic flooding that struck Texas Hill Country as people slept on July 4 and left at least 120 dead was potentially underestimated by federal authorities, according to an ABC News analysis of Federal Emergency Management Agency data, satellite imagery and risk modeling.

The first weather emergency alert sent by the National Weather Service with urgent language instructing people to "seek higher ground now" was sent at 4:03 a.m. local time.

Weather models that meteorologists use to predict thunderstorm activity and heavy precipitation suggested on Thursday the possibility of 10 inches of rain — and even as much as 20 inches — across

Q: Is it true that if President Donald Trump hadn’t defunded the National Weather Service, the death toll in the Texas flooding would have been far lower or nonexistent? A: The Trump administration did not defund the NWS but did reduce the staff by 600 people.

As I wrote in a companion piece this weekend, the National Weather Service issued guidance and warning information in the days to hours leading up to the massive flood event. However, questions exist about whether there were challenges getting the information across what my colleague Bob Henson calls the “last mile” to the public via emergency management and communication channels.

There are two types of natural disasters in this country. Sometimes, it’s the weather that’s getting worse, as climate change leaves Americans exposed to new risks in places they thought were safe. Sometimes, it’s the land use that’s getting worse, as high costs and lack of regulation push people into locations with long-standing known dangers.

Kerr County failed to secure a warning system, even as local officials remained aware of the risks and as billions of dollars were available for similar projects.

Trump was also quick to criticize the Federal Emergency Management Agency's response to both disasters, and as president, he has said he wants to "wean off" FEMA and phase out the agency in an effort to shift more responsibility for recovery to states.

Weather model data shows the National Weather Service had reason to warn of higher flood risks. Still, meteorologists say the agency made reasonable predictions.

A surge of deep tropical moisture returns to Texas this weekend. Here's where the risk of flash flooding is highest in the state this weekend.