Inverted Yields, Negative Rates, and U.S. Treasury Probabilities 10 Years Forward ...

While Super Micro Computer got caught amid recent tariff-related anxieties, the smart money seems relatively confident about ...

In terms of class probability, entrepreneurs and consumers have to decide which characteristics of a particular event are unique (and not relevant to the probability estimate) and which elements are ...

Research is casting prediction markets as policy-relevant forecasting tools just as state regulators escalate efforts to ...

Introduction Cerebral palsy (CP) is a non-progressive condition involving movement and muscle tone difficulties due to injury to the developing brain. Most cases arise around birth, but a smaller ...

Prediction markets expect a Bitcoin price rally, but on-chain data and whale moves suggest a very different outcome may be ...

Self-generated skills don't do much for AI agents, study finds, but human-curated skills do Teach an AI agent how to fish for ...

The FDA has opened the door to the use of Bayesian statistical methods in clinical trials. The worry: Introducing ...

Researchers from the University of British Columbia argue that a widely used method to understand and predict flood risk has led scientists to miscalculate how forests can prevent major flooding. The ...

One ball on a Plinko board is unpredictable. Drop a thousand and they form a near-perfect bell curve—one of math’s most powerful ideas for 150+ years.

One of the most common ways meteorologists convey the threat of rain is using Probability of Precipitation. Yet, it remains one of the most misunderstood tools in the weather communication tool box.

In a revealing episode of the Stat Me Up on Anfield Index, Phil Barter and Simon Brundish joined Dave Davis to dissect ...